Vestibular 2008 1ª Fase INGLÊS

Introduction

The average temperature of the earth's surface has risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s. It is expected to increase by another 1.8° C to 4° C by the year 2100 - a rapid and profound change - should the necessary action not be taken. The principal reason for this increase is 150 years of industrialization: the burning of ever-greater quantities of oil, gasoline, and coal, the cutting of forests, and the practice of certain farming methods. These activities have increased the amount of "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere, especially carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Such gases exist naturally: they are critical for life on earth; but in augmented and increasing quantities they are pushing the global temperature to artificially high levels and altering the climate.

The current warming trend is expected to cause extinction: many plant and animal species, already weakened by pollution and loss of habitat, are not expected to survive the next 100 years. Human beings, while not threatened in the same way, are likely to face increasing difficulties: recent severe storms, floods, and droughts, for example, appear to indicate more frequent "extreme weather events"; the sea could reach the heavily populated coastlines of certain countries, contaminating freshwater supplies for billions of people, and causing mass migrations or even the disappearance of some nations entirely; agricultural production is expected to decrease in most tropical and sub-tropical regions; and the range of diseases, such as malaria, may expand.

Political Aspects

Global warming is a "modern" problem - complicated, involving the entire world, tangled up with difficult issues such as poverty, economic development, and population growth. Since major effects from climate change now appear inevitable, it is vital for countries and communities to take practical steps to protect themselves from the likely disruption and damage that will result.

Traditions and habits may limit the lifestyle choices that are available, yet when thousands and even millions of people make choices that add unnecessarily to the global warming problem, the effects can be considerable. However, if customers and citizens, especially in industrialized countries, become strongly interested in combating global warming and are willing to buy products that cut emissions, new processes and technologies might be invented that would greatly reduce or even solve the problem.

Developing Economies

Between 1990 and 2000, the total greenhouse-gas emissions of industrialized countries actually declined slightly (by 5.6 per cent), but that reflected unusual circumstances: because of the steep and painful drop in economic output of the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, which were shifting from centrally planned to market economies, emissions in those nations fell by 37 per cent. However, now the Eastern European "economies in transition" are growing again, and their emissions are rising. The real work, what is really needed - worldwide economic progress combined with reduced emissions - has yet to be accomplished.

There are problems with economic competition: if laws and regulations around the world are not equally demanding, businesses in countries that do not require greenhouse-gas reductions will be able to operate more cheaply and sell their products at lower prices (at least in the short term) than businesses in countries that require more climate-friendly behaviour. Multinational corporations may shift their factories to places where regulations are less restrictive.

Governments, businesses, and people are going to have to make difficult choices and take painful steps: this requires political will. Meanwhile, however, the world, of course, is also facing many other problems that require attention and sacrifice.

Adapted from a text by UNFCCC © 2007 UNFCCC http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat